Ecology and Evolution
of Wildlife Diseases

Paw print.
Wolf 926F in Yellowstone
Photo: Jort Vanderveen

Wolf pack in Yellowstone
Photo: Jort Vanderveen

Canine Distemper in Yellowstone

This is a phylogenetic study of a multi-host pathogen, called canine distemper virus. It has caused several outbreaks in the wolf population in Yellowstone National Park since the wolf reintroduction in 1995 and 1996. This study investigates whether the viral strains that caused the different canine distemper outbreaks in Yellowstone are closely related or not, suggesting either endemic persistence of canine sitemper virus in Yellowstone, or new introductions of the virus from elsewhere.

Canine Distemper in Alaska

This is a cross-species phylodynamic study of canine distemper virus in the Alaskan ecosystem. This study investigates the relatedness of different canine distemper virus strains across different carnivore species (grizzly bears, black bears, wolves, coyotes, and wolverines) and mesocarnivore species (Arctic foxes, red foxes, river otters) to predict potential transmission pathways and reservoir host species.

Parasite-Sharing Across Taxa

This is a project that determines when ecological factors (i.e., geography, host behavior, host life history, etc.) become more important for predicting parasite sharing between various host species than their phylogenetic relatedness (evolutionary factor). This is useful for predicting the most likely source of new diseases threatening human health and the survival of endangered species.

Ecological Drivers of Dengue

This study uses an empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) approach to detect causality between environmental factors and dengue incidence in the Americas. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease and the environment may affect mosquito survival, abundance, and thus disease transmission. EDM demonstrates that climate (i.e., temperature and rainfall) and population dynamics (i.e., density of susceptible individuals) drive dengue incidence.

Red fox
Photo: Jort Vanderveen

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Nova N, Deyle ER, Shocket MS, MacDonald AJ, Childs ML, Rypdal M, Sugihara G, Mordecai EA. Empirical dynamic modeling reveals ecological drivers of dengue dynamics. Ecology Letters (under review). bioRxiv preprint

Sokolow SH, Jones IJ, Wood CL, Lafferty KD, Garchitorena A, Hopkins SR, Lund AJ, MacDonald AJ, Nova N, Le Boa C, Peel AJ, Mordecai EA, Chamberlin A, Howard ME, Buck JC, Lopez-Carr D, Barry M, Bonds M, De Leo GA. More than one third of global human infectious disease burden is environmentally mediated, with disproportionate effects in rural poor areas. The Lancet Planetary Health (under review). The Lancet preprint

Hopkins SR, Sokolow SH, De Leo GA, Buck JC, Jones I, Kwong L, LeBoa C, Lund A, MacDonald A, Nova N, Olson SH, Peel AJ, Wood CL, Lafferty KD. Identifying win–wins for human health and conservation. Nature Sustainability (under review).

Leempoel K, Meyer J, Hebert T, Nova N, Hadly EA. Return of an apex predator to a suburban preserve triggers a rapid trophic cascade. PLOS ONE (under review). bioRxiv preprint

Smith JR, Hendershot JN, Nova N, Daily GC. The biogeography of ecoregions: Descriptive power across regions and taxa. Journal of Biogeography (under review).

Sokolow SH, Nova N, Pepin MK, Peel AJ, Pulliam JRC, Manlove K, Cross PC, Becker DJ, Plowright RK, McCallum H, De Leo GA. 2019. Ecological levers to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 374(1782):20180342. doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0342

Childs ML, Nova N, Colvin J, Mordecai EA. 2019. Mosquito and primate ecology predict human risk of yellow fever virus spillover in Brazil. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 374(1782):20180335. doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0335

Published Abstract

Van Wert M, Nova N, Horowitz T, Wolfe J. 2008. What does performance on one visual search task tell you about performance on another? Journal of Vision. 8(6):312. doi:10.1167/8.6.312

Book Chapter

Shocket MS, Anderson CB, Caldwell JM, Childs ML, Couper LI, Han S, Harris MJ, Howard ME, Kain MP, MacDonald AJ, Nova N, Mordecai EA. 2020. Environmental Drivers of Vector-Borne Diseases. In: Drake JM, editor. Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases: Population Biology of Vector-borne Diseases. Oxford University Press (in press).


Nova N, Alstergren P, Svensson C. 2012. Chronic inflammation and pain: Assessment of c-Fos and ATF-3 as markers of spinal neuronal activity in a pain model of rheumatoid arthritis. M.Sc. Thesis, Karolinska Institutet. PDF

Logo for Bay Area Ecology and Evolution
of Infectious Diseases conference in 2019.

Sokolow SH, Nova N, et al.
2019. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B.

Childs ML, Nova N, et al.
2019. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B.

Mordecai EA et al.
2019. Ecol. Lett.

Shocket MS et al. 2020. Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases:
Population Biology of Vector-borne Diseases. Oxford University Press
(in press).

Shocket MS et al. 2020. Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases:
Population Biology of Vector-borne Diseases. Oxford University Press
(in press).



Before Nicole started her Ph.D., she studied dental surgery (undergraduate and graduate studies) at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden. Nicole also conducted biomedical research, and completed a Master's thesis on the pathophysiology of chronic pain in rheumatoid arthritis. This was conducted in the Molecular Pain Lab in collaboration with the Department of Physiology and Pharmacology and the Department of Oral Physiology at Karolinska Institutet (more information can be found here).

Nicole also studied abroad for a semester at Queen Mary University of London as an EU Erasmus Mundus scholar, and completed a clinical summer internship at the Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Austria. She worked on several head and neck cancer cases and became interested in the development of cancer at the cell population level. That spark of interest eventually led her to study ecology and evolutionary biology.

Nicole also became fascinated by mathematical biology, especially mathematical modeling in ecology and evolution, to disentangle environmental relationships of complex processes. She obtained her quantitative foundation by studying electrical engineering at the Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden (here is a video of a robot that she and a team of engineering students built using Segway technology).

In 2014, Nicole started working in the Michor Lab at the Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center (Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health). She worked on mathematical modeling of cancer development using theories from evolutionary dynamics and population genetics.

In 2015, Nicole started working as a Research Associate in the Koelle Research Group in the Department of Biology at Duke University. There she studied eco-evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases. She formulated a mathematical model that captured the development of broadly neutralizing antibodies (BnAbs) in chronic HIV-infections. This allowed her to study the within-host co-evolution between BnAbs and HIV, which could potentially provide useful insights for developing effective HIV vaccines.

This journey led her to study the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases using mathematical and statistical modeling approaches.

Office Address

Room 404, Gilbert, 371 Serra Mall,
Stanford, CA 94305